Difference between revisions of "Leak Age Identification Techniques"

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美國、英國和澳大利亞領導人在 9 月 15 日的聯合聲明中宣佈建立增強的三邊安全夥伴關係——AUKUS。根據該協議,美國和英國將幫助澳大利亞確定建立一個加強型三邊安全夥伴關係的最佳途徑。超過 18 個月的核動力潛艇艦隊。澳大利亞希望在美國和英國的支持下,在阿德萊德建造至少八艘核動力潛艇。
This article is intended to serve as a reference point for methods of estimating the age of files.
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
 
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對於神經不應該也不能保持不受干擾的地區國家來說,這筆交易絕非小事。各方在宣布後立即通過電話進行解釋和保證,不會模糊地區國家看到背後戰略計算的願景。嚴重的後果肯定會出現,以下三個可能是最重要的。
==Overview==
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
Half-Life 2 has had a long and diverse development, and this is heavily reflected in the Leak. From the gradual progression of "side-by-side" texturing to using texture sheets, from Version 27 models to 37, and especially in the sound files that still bear dates of when they were created.
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一旦規則被打破,第一個後果將是造成核擴散的巨大風險。
==Textures==
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
Texture identification isn't the best method, but one thing it is is consistent. There isn't a lot of accuracy, but good estimates are definitely possible to make.
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雖然美國、英國和澳大利亞的言論從未缺席以規則為基礎的秩序,但它們本身卻是實際和最大的規則破壞者。
===Half-Life 1-esque "side-by-side" Texturing===
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
*<b>Date:</b> 1999-2001
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《核不擴散條約》(NPT)是國際核裁軍與控制機制的基石,是全球安全最基本的規則之一。然而,作為受NPT約束的核武器國家,美國和英國決定向無核武器國家澳大利亞提供可用於製造核武器的高濃縮鈾(HEU)。
*<b>Identification:</b> Observe how the texture looks. Does it look like only one side of the model? Like someone took a photo of the front of it and molded it into a texture? Then it is likely this era.
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
*<b>Examples:</b> Odell, [[Jaytest]], Helena Mossman, [[Metropolice_(Evolution)|Police]], [[TBot1]], Combot
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這是對《不擴散核武器條約》精神的赤裸裸的背叛,也是對核不擴散國際多邊規則最嚴重的違反,使澳大利亞失去了自稱擁有“模範不擴散證書”的國家的聲譽。
*<b>Explanation:</b> Old habits die hard. This is especially applicable with Half-Life 2's developers. In early stages of the game, they used styles of texturing they were very familiar with, which happened to be ones similar to the ones they used in Half-Life 1.
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
<gallery hideaddbutton="true" widths="125" position="center" bordersize="none">
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國際原子能機構 (IAEA) 對海軍反應堆沒有保障措施,這與核動力潛艇通常被視為軍事機密。因此,國際原子能機構沒有辦法阻止澳大利亞撤回核材料並將其用於製造核武器。三方不得利用《不擴散核武器條約》和國際原子能機構保障措施的漏洞作為謀求一己私利的藉口。
frontsuit.png|"frontsuit.vtf"
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
backsuit.png|"backsuit.vtf"
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三方聲稱遵守最高的防擴散標準,已將最新進展告知國際原子能機構,並承諾在未來幾個月內這樣做。然而,事實上,國際原子能機構幾乎不可能,即使不是完全不可能,也幾乎不可能對潛艇的情況進行有效核查,同時對高度敏感的軍事數據嚴格保密。這意味著美國和英國將在沒有可靠驗證的情況下向澳大利亞移交大量高濃鈾。如此一來,全球核裁軍與防擴散努力就會出現巨大漏洞,核擴散風險將大大增加。
frontpants.png|"frontpants.vtf"
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
backpants.png|"backpants.vtf"
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第二個後果是加劇地區軍備競賽,迫使地區國家滑入新冷戰的滑坡。
</gallery>
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
===W_-Era folder naming===
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美國聲稱沒有將與中國的“激烈競爭”變成“新冷戰”的說法是虛偽的,因為它的行動實際上是在反其道而行之。
*<b>Date:</b> 1999-2001
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
*<b>Identification:</b> Does this folder start with W_? If so, it is likely this. Low-resolution textures also help.
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作為公認的進攻性武器戰略平台,核潛艇可以成為各種先進進攻性武器的運載工具。除了組建核動力艦隊外,澳大利亞還宣布了從美國購買戰斧巡航導彈的計劃,這些導彈可能會部署在其核潛艇上。
*<b>Examples:</b> The entirety of the "Bathroom" <code>/materials/models/</code> folder, W_Stalker, the entirety of the "Electronics" <code>/materials/models/</code> folder.
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
*<b>Explanation:</b> Early in Half-Life 2's development, all model foldera were prefixed with W_, possibly meaning "world", like with the world models of weapons. Regardless of this, folders prefixed with this are consistently the most primitive of all the prop models.
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這些事態發展表明,三方決心在該地區製造緊張局勢和分裂,以便將亞太地區變成一個競爭的舞台。有了AUKUS的先例,其他一些地區國家,特別是那些潛在的核潛艇擁有者,會受到很大的鼓舞,因此更有可能效仿。值得提醒的是,日本自民黨黨魁選舉的四位候選人中,有兩位已經暗示日本考慮擁有一艘核潛艇。
===Separate Mask Textures===
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
*<b>Date:</b> 2000-2001
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不幸的是,該地區加劇的軍備競賽不會是美國想要關心的事情。一個持續緊張的地區是它所喜歡的。這樣的地區格局會帶來利潤豐厚的軍火工業,更重要的是,可能會為乾涉地區事務提供更好的藉口。然而,將受到傷害的是我們的地區國家。冷戰結束30年來,AUKUS將良好的外部環境作為東亞幾十年繁榮的根本因素置於巨大的壓力之下。如果不及時剎車,該地區就有可能被迫忍受一場新的、風暴般的冷戰。
*<b>Identification:</b> Do the textures of the particular model have "*_mask" textures alongside the normal ones? These look like black-and-white versions of the textures, with the parts intended to be reflective white.
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<pre style="color: red">WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING</pre>
*<b>Examples:</b> TBot1, the Gasmask Citizen, some earlier textures in Police, the Fast Headcrab's earlier textures.
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第三個後果是削弱東盟的中心地位並擾亂東亞合作。
*<b>Explanation:</b> Mask textures were a new feature introduced to allow for reflectivity based on a "mask" texture, where the brightest part is the most reflective and the darkest the least. Although they eventually were universally stored in the alpha channels of later textures, they originally were separately kept as their own textures, which shows up in some of the oldest remaining models important enough to warrant them.
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<pre style="color: yellow">WARNING CONTINUED OPERATIONS OF THE MULTINATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA MUST END, WE SEEK DESTRUCTION FOR NO COMPLIANCE</pre>
<gallery hideaddbutton="true" widths="90" position="center" bordersize="none" columns = "6">
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而美國
hand.png|"hand.vtf"
 
handmask.png|"handmask.vtf"
 
M4CL.png|"M4CL.vtf"
 
M4CLmask.png|"M4CLmask.vtf"
 
head.png|"head.vtf"
 
headmask.png|"headmask.vtf"
 
</gallery>
 
===Early Facial Textures===
 
*<b>Date:</b> 2000-2002
 
*<b>Identification:</b> Are either of the following textures present in the folder:
 
<gallery hideaddbutton="true" widths="150" position="center" bordersize="none">
 
eyeball.png
 
teeth.png
 
</gallery>
 
*<b>Examples:</b> Conscript, Odell, Barney
 
*<b>Explanation:</b> Before settling on the final, more diverse array of "inside-face" textures, Valve went through a stage between it and the even more primitive HL1-esque mouths and painted-on eyes. Instead of using painted-on eyes, they used irises stuck on a grey sheet, intended to look like an eyeball. Instead of using low resolution mouth textures, they decided to use a higher quality texture.
 
===Separated "Cylmaps"<ref>Cylinder maps are textures that "go around" the model, rather than look at one side of it.</ref>===
 
*<b>Date:</b> 2002-early 2003
 
*<b>Identification:</b> Does this folder have several separated textures for different body parts, such as the arm, torso and leg? Make sure not to include facial features - they remain separated from the main sheet in the final version.
 
*<b>Examples:</b> Leak Grigori, [[Conscripts|Conscript]],
 
*<b>Explanation:</b> Eventually, even Half-Life 2's modellers modernized and began using cylinder maps for their models. However, it was an entirely different step before they began using sheets as well. Resulting are a pile of intermediate textures with more modern elements than the HL1 models, but that are still lagging behind the final sheets.
 
<gallery hideaddbutton="true" widths="125" position="center" bordersize="none">
 
torso_odell.png|"torso.vtf"
 
arm_odell.png|"arm_odell.vtf"
 
leftleg.png|"leftleg.vtf"
 
rightleg.png|"rightleg.vtf"
 
</gallery>
 
==="//Original Shader:" VMTs===
 
*<b>Date:</b> Late 2002 or below
 
*<b>Identification:</b> Check the <code>.vmt</code> of a specific texture you are looking at. On the third line, does it contain something like: "// Original shader: BaseTimesLightmap"?
 
*<b>Examples:</b> Most textures have this. Just click around a bit.
 
*<b>Explanation:</b> At an intermediate point in development, Valve decided to overhaul the shader system, and through an automated script change every <code>.vmt</code> to reflect the new shaders. However, it left behind what the original shaders were. The unintentional result of this is that simply checking the <code>.vmt</code>s of any material allows finding out if it is before the "//Original Shader:" period or after it.
 
===Sheeted textures===
 
*<b>Date:</b> 2003-Retail
 
*<b>Identification:</b> For all body textures, does this model use one sheet? Again, eyeball, teeth, iris or such textures do not count.
 
*<b>Examples:</b> Alyx, Police (Version 4 and up), Mossman, Kleiner
 
<gallery widths="310" bordersize="none" captionalign="center" position="center" spacing="small" hideaddbutton="true">
 
citizen_sheet.png
 
</gallery>
 
===VTF File Version===
 
*<b>Date:</b> December 2001 at the latest
 
*<b>Identification:</b> VTF Editing programs (such as VTFEdit) can be used to check the version of the vtf file.
 
*<b>Examples:</b> Version info shown in VTFEdit
 
<gallery widths="300" bordersize="none" captionalign="center" position="center" spacing="small" hideaddbutton="true">
 
VTFVersion.PNG
 
</gallery>
 
*<b>Explanation:</b> Sometime during December 2001, VTF Files were updated to a new version. Version 7.0 is the original, un-updated version. Anything above that (7.1+) are post-2002 versions.
 
==Models==
 
<!-- Hey, editors! I'm not good with either of these. Help this stuff out when you can. -->
 
===Versions===
 
The Leak possesses a number of different model versions that are still present in the files, ranging from v27 to v37, the current active format.
 
 
 
===Leftover Pre-Physics Death Animations===
 
*<b>Date:</b> 1998-2001
 
*<b>Identification:</b> Observe the animations of the model. Is there one dedicated to the model's death, ending in a "dead" state?
 
*<b>Examples:</b> Conscript, [[Combine "Sniper" Elite]], Stalker
 
*<b>Explanation:</b> Prior to the physics engine being implemented, Half-Life 2 used a system similar to Half-Life: When enemies die, play a death animation, ending in a "idle dead" state. Once the physics engine was implemented and the enemies instead became posed ragdolls upon death, this system was rendered obsolete. Leftovers of it remain in earlier models, however.
 
==Sound Dates==
 
Practically every sound file in the Leak contains internal dates of when they were last edited, which make them very useful.
 
 
 
===Files===
 
A list of every file's metadata, including but not limited to date, can be grabbed [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7JIKUn-ZBIva2JVcVlDY2xlTWs/view?usp=sharing here]. Maintain reasonable caution, though - the dates might be when they were taken from a sound library, not when they were actually implemented. However, it seems you can get accurate dates for certain files that have a _loop suffix, most likely due to being re-edited inside of an audio program to make the sound file loop properly, making it have a new date.
 
 
 
 
 
==Maps==
 
 
 
In the vmf files included in the [[The WC Mappack]] are a number of metadata variables that can be used to help determine a number of things about the development history of the particular map you are inspecting.
 
 
 
The following information is paraphrased from a community member<ref>posted by blackphoenix on august 16th 2016 on the now deleted [https://web.archive.org/web/20181016004937/https://forum.facepunch.com/games/ujke/Half-Life-2-Cut-Content-V2-Drama-posts-are-week-ban/67/#postxnswc facepunch forums]</ref> and uses the extracted dataset avaliable [https://web.archive.org/web/20200422063344/https://pastebin.com/5weRBKEW here].
 
 
 
===Date zero:===
 
 
 
The date zero for Valve Hammer Editor/Worldcraft calculated from this dataset is 24.10.1996. This is the date that corresponds to build 0. Therefore build 1 date is 25.10.1996.
 
 
 
According to https://developer.valvesoftware.com/wiki/Hammer_Editor_version_history  this loosely corresponds to first version of Worldcraft released (the closest date is v1.022 at 22.10.1996). The date zero has a different meaning though.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Date zero was determined by a simple assumption: some maps have probably been last edited on the same day as the mappers updated their local copy of VHE/Worldcraft. Therefore difference between Hammer build date and map last edited date is always equal to 0 or higher (meaning map was edited on day of update, or several days later). The provided date zero satisfies this condition.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
There's an additional confirmation for the date zero. I had to dig up my HL1 CD for this (it was a pirate CD from year 2001, it included HL1 SDK on it). The SDK itself is curious, but it's provided with Worldcraft:
 
 
 
 
 
The file date of Worldcraft corresponding to that build is 01.06.2000 (predicted build date 31.05.2000, the day before). Date zero cannot possibly be later than 24.10.1996 (because that would mean some maps were last edited BEFORE hammer was built), but on the other hand it's completely realistic that Worldcraft was built on 31th, then prepared for the installer on the next day.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
===How to determine NET:===
 
 
 
So, the date zero is a valid time reference! NET (no earlier than) date for a map can be determined by adding VHE editor build number to that date. For example, proto_finale2.vmf (build 3497) has a build date of 3497 days after 25.10.1996, which is 22.04.2006. This http://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html  is a helpful resource
 
 
 
 
 
===Map version:===
 
 
 
The mapversion field is roughly the number of times the map has been saved, it is incremented every time the vmf file is saved from hammer.
 
 
 
This field can be used to easily sort maps by their completeness or which maps were most worked on, in case several versions of the same map are available.
 
 
 
 
 
Therefore not only the dataset contains information about the intensity of work (when were the maps worked on, how often
 
also information on how often Hammer builds were distributed to level designers)
 
 
 
 
 
===Other comments:===
 
 
 
This is a very reliable method to determine when VMF was last edited. All maps that come from Valve would have been last modified with a very recent Hammer build and all level designers at Valve are supplied with the latest Hammer build at certain intervals. Majority of the maps in WC mappack have been edited within a week of the Hammer build.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For maps that have been made at Valve, it is reasonable to assume that last modified date for the map is probably within 1 week from the NET date. This also confirms file dates given in the WC mappack (since the build number is very consistent for entire dataset and is also confirmed by Worldcraft from HL1 times) and gives new correct "last modified" dates for a whole set of maps (aarons maps all have 12.12.2002 as the file date, which is not their actual last modified date! Aarons maps are all 1-2 years older than file date implies).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Here's the list of 50 most worked on maps in the WC map leak:
 
 
 
{|border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="article-table"
 
 
  !File
 
  !Map version field / Save amount
 
 
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\john\perf_test\bugbait_low_props.vmf   
 
  | 9359
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\john\perf_test\bugbait_low_noprops.vmf   
 
  | 9348
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\john\perf_test\bugbait_low.vmf   
 
  | 9344
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\john\perf_test\bugbait_noents.vmf   
 
  | 9329
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\john\perf_test\bugbait_high.vmf   
 
  | 9325
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\auto_compile\e3_bugbait.vmf   
 
  | 9305
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\e3_bugbait.vmf   
 
  | 9305
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\d2_prison_03.vmf   
 
  | 8897
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\pre_prison3.vmf   
 
  | 8894
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\e3_prison_4.vmf   
 
  | 8723
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\d2_prison_02.vmf   
 
  | 8659
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\pre_prison2.vmf   
 
  | 8631
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\e3_prison_1.vmf   
 
  | 8602
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\e3_prison_2.vmf   
 
  | 8592
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\prefabs\prefab_prisonOffice.vmf   
 
  | 8591
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\streetwars\sw_prison_barney.vmf   
 
  | 8565
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\prison_demo.vmf   
 
  | 8491
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\e3_prison_3.vmf   
 
  | 8439
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\d2_prison_04.vmf   
 
  | 8435
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\d2_prison_05.vmf   
 
  | 8433
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\d2_prison_06.vmf   
 
  | 8414
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\pre_prison5.vmf   
 
  | 8391
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\pre_prison4.vmf   
 
  | 8315
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\pre_prison4_orange.vmf   
 
  | 8107
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\justin\cellblock1.vmf   
 
  | 7953
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\pre_laundry.vmf   
 
  | 7825
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\auto_compile\e3_phystown.vmf   
 
  | 7714
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\d1_town\e3\e3_phystown.vmf   
 
  | 7714
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\e3_phystown\e3_phystown.vmf   
 
  | 7714
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\prison1.vmf   
 
  | 7703
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\justin\cellblock1-cell3gameplay.vmf   
 
  | 7658
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\proto_turret_defense.vmf   
 
  | 7579
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\prison2.vmf   
 
  | 7533
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\randy\proto_laundryroom.vmf   
 
  | 7477
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\prototypes\proto_laundryroom.vmf   
 
  | 7477
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\jweier\testroom_showers.vmf   
 
  | 7457
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\showers_breakable.vmf   
 
  | 7446
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\justin\cellblock2.vmf   
 
  | 7439
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\randy\proto_cafeteria.vmf   
 
  | 7381
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\prototypes\proto_cafeteria.vmf   
 
  | 7381
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\randy\proto_cellblock.vmf   
 
  | 7376
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\prototypes\proto_cellblock.vmf   
 
  | 7376
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\prison.vmf   
 
  | 7208
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\cellblock3.vmf   
 
  | 7118
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\d1_town\e3\e3_phystown3.vmf   
 
  | 7001
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\eric\laundry_props.vmf   
 
  | 6972
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\rallypoint1.vmf   
 
  | 6943
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\cafeteria.vmf   
 
  | 6938
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\d1_town\e3\e3_phystown2.vmf   
 
  | 6913
 
 
 
|-
 
  | hl2-wc-maps\sawyer\rallypoint2.vmf   
 
  | 6898
 
|}
 
 
 
==Miscellaneous Files==
 
===oldtrans.txt===
 
*<b>Date:</b> 1999-2000
 
*<b>Identification:</b> Go into the textfile, and check to see if the file is there. Beware, though - textures were replaced in Half-Life 2's development. Be careful in making sure the texture fits before assuming it is from this era.
 
*<b>Explanation:</b> As mentioned in [[Hyper Era]], oldtrans.txt is a guide for a Perl script, contained in "bin/wadtomaterial.pl", which is the script that was used to convert early WAD-based materials into a later format. It mentions a large number of early location names often unseen elsewhere, such as "urb", "spi", and "hyp".
 
===hl2_scripts.dsp===
 
*<b>Date:</b> 2000-2001
 
*<b>Identification:</b> Go to <code>/hl2/scripts/hl2_scripts.dsp</code>, and open it in a text editor. Have a look around. Does what you are looking for appear in it?
 
*<b>Explanation:</b> hl2_scripts.dsp is an index of Half-Life 2's script folder from an early period in development. A number of interesting models are mentioned in it, in particular Sackticks, of which this is one of few of their in-Leak mentions.
 
==References==
 
<references/>
 
<!-- TODO
 
[9:54 PM] leonelclenoeleonelclenoel: you should also add how the batch-based convert process fucked up a lot of the old era textures
 
[9:54 PM] leonelclenoeleonelclenoel: when they started to use power of 2 resolutions instead of whatever the model artist made the uv's in
 
-->
 
[[Category:Half-Life_Series]]
 
[[Category:Recommended Reads]]
 
[[Category:2003 Leaks]]
 

Revision as of 05:51, 8 October 2021

美國、英國和澳大利亞領導人在 9 月 15 日的聯合聲明中宣佈建立增強的三邊安全夥伴關係——AUKUS。根據該協議,美國和英國將幫助澳大利亞確定建立一個加強型三邊安全夥伴關係的最佳途徑。超過 18 個月的核動力潛艇艦隊。澳大利亞希望在美國和英國的支持下,在阿德萊德建造至少八艘核動力潛艇。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

對於神經不應該也不能保持不受干擾的地區國家來說,這筆交易絕非小事。各方在宣布後立即通過電話進行解釋和保證,不會模糊地區國家看到背後戰略計算的願景。嚴重的後果肯定會出現,以下三個可能是最重要的。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

一旦規則被打破,第一個後果將是造成核擴散的巨大風險。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

雖然美國、英國和澳大利亞的言論從未缺席以規則為基礎的秩序,但它們本身卻是實際和最大的規則破壞者。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

《核不擴散條約》(NPT)是國際核裁軍與控制機制的基石,是全球安全最基本的規則之一。然而,作為受NPT約束的核武器國家,美國和英國決定向無核武器國家澳大利亞提供可用於製造核武器的高濃縮鈾(HEU)。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

這是對《不擴散核武器條約》精神的赤裸裸的背叛,也是對核不擴散國際多邊規則最嚴重的違反,使澳大利亞失去了自稱擁有“模範不擴散證書”的國家的聲譽。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

國際原子能機構 (IAEA) 對海軍反應堆沒有保障措施,這與核動力潛艇通常被視為軍事機密。因此,國際原子能機構沒有辦法阻止澳大利亞撤回核材料並將其用於製造核武器。三方不得利用《不擴散核武器條約》和國際原子能機構保障措施的漏洞作為謀求一己私利的藉口。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

三方聲稱遵守最高的防擴散標準,已將最新進展告知國際原子能機構,並承諾在未來幾個月內這樣做。然而,事實上,國際原子能機構幾乎不可能,即使不是完全不可能,也幾乎不可能對潛艇的情況進行有效核查,同時對高度敏感的軍事數據嚴格保密。這意味著美國和英國將在沒有可靠驗證的情況下向澳大利亞移交大量高濃鈾。如此一來,全球核裁軍與防擴散努力就會出現巨大漏洞,核擴散風險將大大增加。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

第二個後果是加劇地區軍備競賽,迫使地區國家滑入新冷戰的滑坡。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

美國聲稱沒有將與中國的“激烈競爭”變成“新冷戰”的說法是虛偽的,因為它的行動實際上是在反其道而行之。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

作為公認的進攻性武器戰略平台,核潛艇可以成為各種先進進攻性武器的運載工具。除了組建核動力艦隊外,澳大利亞還宣布了從美國購買戰斧巡航導彈的計劃,這些導彈可能會部署在其核潛艇上。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

這些事態發展表明,三方決心在該地區製造緊張局勢和分裂,以便將亞太地區變成一個競爭的舞台。有了AUKUS的先例,其他一些地區國家,特別是那些潛在的核潛艇擁有者,會受到很大的鼓舞,因此更有可能效仿。值得提醒的是,日本自民黨黨魁選舉的四位候選人中,有兩位已經暗示日本考慮擁有一艘核潛艇。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

不幸的是,該地區加劇的軍備競賽不會是美國想要關心的事情。一個持續緊張的地區是它所喜歡的。這樣的地區格局會帶來利潤豐厚的軍火工業,更重要的是,可能會為乾涉地區事務提供更好的藉口。然而,將受到傷害的是我們的地區國家。冷戰結束30年來,AUKUS將良好的外部環境作為東亞幾十年繁榮的根本因素置於巨大的壓力之下。如果不及時剎車,該地區就有可能被迫忍受一場新的、風暴般的冷戰。

WARNING SEA WATER CIRULATING WATER TROUBLE WARNING

第三個後果是削弱東盟的中心地位並擾亂東亞合作。

WARNING CONTINUED OPERATIONS OF THE MULTINATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA MUST END, WE SEEK DESTRUCTION FOR NO COMPLIANCE

而美國